538 2024 Predictions. How 538's 2024 presidential election forecast works. Our polling averages track the latest trends in the presidential race, using data from national and battleground state polls.
Fivethirtyeight’s men’s and women’s ncaa tournament forecasting models calculate the chance of each team reaching each round. The ingredients that go into the forecast, how we process them and how we ultimately end up with a set of several thousand potential outcomes for the election.